PC shipments surged 9.6% in Q4 2025 as buyers raced to beat looming memory shortages, reaching 76.4 million units globally. The International Data Corporation reports the holiday quarter spike came from consumers and manufacturers stockpiling inventory ahead of anticipated price hikes.
IDC research vice president Jean Philippe Bouchard warns the PC market faces extreme volatility throughout 2026. "The year ahead is shaping up to be extremely volatile," Bouchard stated in the firm's latest market analysis. Memory shortages driven by AI data center demand will reshape industry dynamics for at least two years.
Global PC shipments totaled 284.7 million units for all of 2025, an 8.1% year-over-year increase. Lenovo maintained market leadership with 70.8 million units shipped, capturing 24.9% share. HP followed with 57.5 million units and 20.2% market share, while Dell placed third with 41.1 million units, capturing approximately 14.4% to 15.3% market share according to different IDC estimates.
The memory crisis extends beyond DRAM to NAND flash and hard drives, with manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron prioritizing AI clients over consumer markets. IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani told The Register the shortage could persist into late 2027, driving higher device prices across PCs, tablets, and phones.
PC makers will likely lower memory specifications on mid-range systems to preserve inventory. Bouchard noted manufacturers might reduce average RAM configurations while shifting focus to premium and mid-range devices to offset component costs. This marks the end of an era of cheap, abundant memory and storage.
Major manufacturers including Dell, HP, and Lenovo have already warned investors about impending price increases. Dell COO Jeff Clarke called the current DRAM shortage "unprecedented" during November earnings, noting it's the seventh major shortage he's witnessed in 40 years but the most severe since 2016-2017.
Smaller PC brands face existential threats from the memory crunch. IDC warns companies like Acer, Asus, and MSI may struggle to secure components at competitive prices, potentially pushing their finished products beyond consumer reach. DIY enthusiasts and budget-conscious buyers may delay purchases or shift spending elsewhere.
The Windows 10 end-of-support deadline in 2025 drove significant corporate upgrades, contributing to the Q4 surge. Combined with tariff concerns and holiday demand, these factors created a perfect storm for inventory accumulation before memory constraints tightened.
Apple shipped 7.1 million Macs in Q4 2025, maintaining fourth place with approximately 9.3% market share according to IDC data. While Apple's full-year growth reached 11.1%, its Q4 performance remained essentially flat at 0.2% growth, contrasting with double-digit gains from Lenovo, HP, and Dell.
IDC predicts total PC shipments could decline by up to 9% in 2026, potentially dropping to 260 million units near pre-pandemic levels. Despite lower unit volumes, overall market value will increase as manufacturers raise average selling prices to compensate for memory costs.
The memory shortage's ripple effects extend to graphics cards and storage. Nvidia reportedly plans to cut GPU production by up to 40% in 2026, while hard drive prices have begun spiking across the board. AI PC definitions may shift from requiring 16GB RAM minimum to hybrid cloud-device configurations.
Industry analysts agree 2026 represents the last favorable buying window before significant price increases hit. Consumers seeking new systems should consider purchases before manufacturers implement widespread price adjustments and specification reductions later this year.
