Apple's foldable iPhone is shaping up to be the most frustrating launch in years. Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts the company will only manufacture 500,000 to 1 million units of the rumored iPhone Ultra in the third quarter, with delivery delays stretching six weeks or longer through the Christmas period. The culprit is the phone's advanced folding design.
Kuo's latest industry survey, published Monday, draws a direct parallel to the iPhone X launch in 2017, which also suffered from production bottlenecks tied to its OLED all-screen display, notch, and TrueDepth Face ID camera. The iPhone Ultra reportedly uses a flexible OLED with a laser-drilled metal support plate to disperse stress and deliver a nearly invisible crease, adding complexity to an already difficult manufacturing process.
After the initial quarter, Apple's supply chain should ramp to roughly 7-8 million units by the end of 2026. For context, Kuo estimates the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will ship 20-22 million units in the same period, meaning the foldable represents about 10% of flagship iPhone volume in its first months.
Demand, however, will be overwhelming. Kuo expects the Ultra to sell out "immediately after pre-orders open," based on discussions with carriers, sales channels, and resellers.
The price is reportedly between $2,300 and $2,500, a figure Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has said will "cross the $2,000 threshold." Kuo predicts scarce supply, a recognizable design, and an user experience will support a short-term resale premium, with 9to5Mac noting that Ultras could be scalped for 50-100% above retail.
Apple may announce the foldable alongside the iPhone 18 lineup in early September, but Kuo says pre-orders and official sales will come later, mirroring the iPhone X's staggered rollout. A leaked dummy model suggests the Ultra will have a 5.5-inch display when folded and roughly 7.8 inches when open, with a wider 4:3 aspect ratio similar to an iPad.
Kuo estimates that supply constraints should ease by the first quarter of 2027, offering a clearer picture of real demand. Until then, anyone hoping to buy Apple's first foldable at launch should prepare for a long wait.
