Wells Fargo analysts predict SpaceX's public debut will boost communications stocks in 2026, not technology shares. Mark Smith, senior vice president at Wells Fargo Advisors, told CNBC the spacecraft firm's IPO will propel the communications sector due to industry consolidation and satellite technology advances.
SpaceX aims for a $1.5 trillion valuation in its public offering, which would surpass Saudi Aramco's 2019 record as the largest IPO in history. Elon Musk confirmed the company's 2026 listing plans last month, calling reports about the timeline "accurate" according to multiple financial outlets.
Recent private share sales valued SpaceX at approximately $800 billion, with internal transactions reaching $421 per share. The company's chief financial officer Bret Johnsen wrote to employees that SpaceX and investors intend to buy $2.56 billion of shares from stockholders at that price, nearly double the previous internal valuation.
Wells Fargo's Smith emphasized that SpaceX will impact communications more than technology because its satellites are revolutionizing the industry. "When you're looking at the satellites and all that, I think you're going to really see the change in how we traditionally look at communication services over the next decade," he told CNBC.
SpaceX demonstrated unprecedented launch capabilities in 2025, deploying over 3,200 satellites and completing 165 launches. Jefferies analysts reported the company achieved 971 low-Earth orbit launches in the fourth quarter alone, representing a 30% increase from the previous quarter and 70% surge from the same period in 2024.
Major investors have already positioned themselves for the IPO. Ron Baron disclosed that nearly 25% of his personal portfolio is invested in SpaceX, while Cathie Wood's ARK Venture Fund holds the company as its top position. Musk maintains a 44% stake in SpaceX, the largest portion of any investor.
The communications sector has experienced significant consolidation throughout 2025, creating conditions for improved profit margins according to Wells Fargo analysis. Smith noted he's "never seen it before in my career where you've seen this much consolidation over the last year, companies merging."
SpaceX plans to use IPO proceeds for ambitious projects including space-based AI data centers, Moonbase Alpha development, and Mars missions. The company's Starlink satellite internet service has become a major revenue driver, while its Starship rocket program aims for an unmanned Mars mission in 2026.
Analysts at Jefferies and Deutsche Bank see potential in orbital data centers as AI workloads strain terrestrial infrastructure. Kevin Lin of Jefferies believes this sector could drive low-Earth orbit market growth over the next decade, though Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu cautioned about remaining engineering challenges.
The SpaceX listing comes as Musk's Tesla faces competitive pressures, having lost its position as the world's top EV seller to BYD in late 2025. While Tesla shares gained 11% last year, they underperformed major indices and fell short of previous years' explosive rallies.
SpaceX's public debut is scheduled for mid-to-late 2026, though no official date has been set. The offering would not only break IPO records but potentially redefine space infrastructure's role in global capital markets, according to financial analysts tracking the preparation.
