Nvidia enters Wednesday's earnings report as the sole trillion-dollar tech stock posting gains in a brutal 2026 market, with analysts watching whether massive AI infrastructure spending translates into sustained growth for the chipmaker.
The company's shares have gained 2.7% this year while the Nasdaq dropped more than 2.5%, making it the only megacap technology stock to notch positive returns amid widespread declines across the sector.
Wall Street expects Nvidia to report a 68% revenue jump to $66 billion for its fiscal fourth quarter ending in February, according to LSEG data cited by analysts. For the April quarter, projections point to year-over-year growth of 63% reaching $72 billion.
Wedbush Securities reiterated its Buy rating on Nvidia with a $230 price target that implies roughly 20% upside from current levels. The firm noted that over 90% of financial institutions tracked by FactSet recommend buying Nvidia shares ahead of the earnings release.
Truist Securities maintains a more bullish $275 price target, forecasting Q4 revenue of $66.07 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.53. The average Wall Street price target sits at $265.07 based on consensus ratings showing 32 Buys against just one Sell recommendation.
Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon are projected to spend nearly $700 billion combined this year fueling their artificial intelligence expansion plans, representing a more than 60% increase from historic capital expenditure levels reached in 2025 according to company forecasts and analyst estimates.
Nvidia now generates approximately 90% of its revenue from data center operations housing graphics processing units and AI systems used to train and run large language models across cloud infrastructure deployments worldwide.
Despite overwhelming demand signals from hyperscale cloud providers expanding their AI infrastructure budgets, skepticism persists about whether current spending levels represent sustainable growth or potential overbuilding that could disproportionately impact the dominant chip supplier.
"The story is so unbelievably simple, yet at the same time quite complex today," Cantor Fitzgerald analysts wrote last week while maintaining an outperform rating on Nvidia stock.
They noted that despite "insatiable" demand for computing power and an "extremely positive" setup for quarterly results, "investor concerns remain, headlined by fears of peaking hyperscale capex this year."
Competitive pressures continue mounting as cloud providers develop custom silicon solutions internally while rival chipmakers target inference computing segments where demand grows alongside scaling AI applications deployment across enterprise environments.
