A stark warning from JPMorgan puts Tesla investors on notice: the electric vehicle maker's stock could plunge another 60% from current levels as delivery misses and inventory buildup signal deeper problems.
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman maintained his $145 price target for Tesla this week, implying roughly 60% downside from Thursday's closing price. The firm reiterated its underweight rating and advised investors to approach Tesla shares "with a high degree of caution."
The warning follows Tesla's first-quarter delivery report that showed 358,023 vehicles delivered, missing consensus estimates calling for around 370,000 units. While deliveries rose 6% year-over-year, that increase came from a low base after Q1 2025 deliveries tumbled by double digits.
Tesla shares have already fallen nearly 20% so far in 2026, trading around $359 after peaking just under $499 last December. The stock plunged 5% immediately following the Q1 delivery announcement.
Production outpaced deliveries by more than 50,000 vehicles in the quarter, with Tesla manufacturing 408,386 units against deliveries of 358,023. That inventory buildup comes as competition intensifies across global electric vehicle markets.
JPMorgan lowered its earnings per share forecast for 2026 to $1.80 from $2.00, below consensus estimates that once stood as high as $9.77 notes. Brinkman now expects first quarter EPS to decline to $0.30 from $0.43.
The firm's bearish stance contrasts with Morgan Stanley's more optimistic view. While JPMorgan sees potential for significant downside, Morgan Stanley maintains an equalweight rating with a $415 price target, implying upside potential based on last Thursday's closing price.
Tesla faces the prospect of a third consecutive year of declining annual deliveries after posting decreases in both 2024 and 2025. The company continues shifting focus toward autonomous driving technology and humanoid robots while its core automotive business shows signs of strain.
