It has been months since Microsoft has been working on a forecasting methodology to predict the outcome of different political races, and games with the help of the past events. They have been testing these things with the data they have collected, and have been relying on that since. But now they want us, the humans, and to make that possible, they have launched a website called the Prediction Lab. Here you can register, and vote on different things, such as, who will win a presidential election, or the outcome of a cricket match. But unlike traditional polling systems, where users just choose one without any second thought, there are virtual points that are at stake when you vote. This is specifically made to make sure that you think critically, and then vote, which will improve Microsoft’s prediction algorithms.
David Rothschild is a the Microsoft’s researcher who is working on this project, and had successfully predicted the outcome of the 2012 Presidential Elections. And with the help of this website, he was able to predict the Scotland independence referendum. That same morning, before the results were revealed, Rothschild was able to predict that 84% of the votes will be a “No”.
The project is solely meant to collect data and improve Microsoft’s technology, but they do ask some more personal questions. For instance, they ask how much time does it take to commute, and your personal stance on abortion. So if you don’t bother providing such data, and just want to place some bets without risking all your life savings, then this is the best place for you.
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